Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1529
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 22:22:06

ACUS11 KWNS 132221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132221=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1529
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0521 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of New England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481...

Valid 132221Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 481
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two will
remain possible in eastern New York into far western Vermont,
Massachusetts, and Connecticut. A downstream watch is not
anticipated this evening due to a decreasingly favorable
thermodynamic environment.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong to severe thunderstorms continues to
move east through eastern New York and into Vermont. A couple
discrete storms exist south of Albany as well. The shortwave trough
is now lifting northeast into Quebec. While mid-level ascent should
decrease with time, some 850 mb flow enhancement will remain as will
a slightly better thermodynamic environment in southeastern New York
into far western Massachusetts/Connecticut. Damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary threat over the next 2-3 hours. Area VWP
continue to show sufficient low-level veering to support a continued
threat of a tornado or two. The best low-level shear is between the
Red Hook/Albany vicinity per NY Mesonet profilers. Discrete storms
in this area would pose the greatest risk for a brief tornado.
Activity is expected to become more marginal with time as the
boundary layer cools and mid-level ascent decreases further. A
downstream watch is not currently expected this evening.

...Wendt.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-5xiPVetEntO82cWpXz9slyxrk_qJ0CmoMB5YuHrNdDsk0I6PawcE2sx4IH7jJd8CXa7rUzKD=
33j-5kni4RA4nUCeYA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   42157555 42287558 42427545 42697482 43407404 44087351
            44537319 44587297 44387233 44257211 43907179 43677172
            42697225 42047290 41777328 41707440 41817496 41987526
            42117549 42157555=20


=3D =3D =3D
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