Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1528
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 21:49:02

ACUS11 KWNS 132148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132148=20
MNZ000-132315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1528
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0448 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western/central MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 132148Z - 132315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind will spread
southeastward into this evening. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has
recently developed across eastern SD, with several reports of severe
hail in the last hour. Moderate buoyancy and unidirectional wind
profiles with around 30-40 kt of effective shear are supporting
occasional supercell structures, and some hail threat may continue
as storms approach southwest MN, where a similar environment is in
place. Farther north, strong to potentially severe storms are moving
from eastern ND into western MN, and may pose a localized hail
threat in the short term.=20

With time, some clustering and modest upscale growth of convection
is possible. While relatively dry conditions are noted across parts
of central MN, steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support some
damaging wind threat with any upscale growing cluster by early
evening. Watch issuance is possible for some portion of
western/central MN, depending on short-term observational trends.

...Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ktoVwL-EeIwcSg91yQcEUTebYcaYcebKSRKY1ALrHVpq_yL-9qC3mzNtinZ-hFWZZL5XiANl=
k-MVri_2DbEoEBx8Jo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   48079606 47959591 47159453 45899432 43629421 43599576
            43659640 44869643 45729641 46879654 47759658 48079606=20


=3D =3D =3D
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