Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1525
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 19:50:33

ACUS11 KWNS 131950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131950=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-132145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1525
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Far northeastern NM and parts of the TX/OK
Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 131950Z - 132145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms capable of all hazards are expected across
parts of northeastern NM into the TX/OK Panhandles this afternoon
into the evening. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the
area.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are gradually deepening in
northeastern NM and the western TX Panhandle as they impinge on an
axis of strong surface-based instability over the TX/OK Panhandles.
Within the pre-convective environment, antecedent outflow is
yielding a sheltered boundary layer with backed/easterly surface
winds and unusually high boundary-layer moisture (middle 70s surface
dewpoints). With around 40-50 kt of effective shear across the area,
organized storms including supercells are expected. Large hail and
damaging winds will be possible with this activity, though a tornado
or two cannot be ruled out with any longer-lived,
discrete/semi-discrete supercells given a deep effective inflow
layer and modest low-level hodograph curvature. A watch will likely
be needed for parts of the area by 4pm CDT.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8XNbBnxxWAb16wiIWNrzKiVQ7TycVVUxSQh9Tl54IOJ8K6BvgJZKkXkY53lvxmkiT9oDMFKQv=
Cg3BwXJjgnUYgoWzEU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   35450293 35900348 36380397 36680400 36880393 37030365
            37050330 37040228 36960136 36640069 36180035 35630020
            35090043 34850087 34820158 35070229 35450293=20


=3D =3D =3D
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