Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 18:30:28

AWUS01 KWNH 131830
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-140029-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0716
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Ohio Valley into Central Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131829Z - 140029Z

Summary...Slow moving thunderstorms developing this afternoon will
be capable of producing hourly totals between 1-1.5" at times and
may lead to localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Ahead of a cold front that is currently draped across
portions of Indiana and Ohio, a warm, unstable, and moist airmass
exists this afternoon. With sufficient daytime heating and
dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, an axis of high
instability (2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE) has developed which is
overlapped with an area of enhanced moisture characterized by PWs
exceeding 1.5". Radar imagery this afternoon already shows
isolated/scattered convection developing across northern Kentucky,
southern Ohio and western West Virginia.

There is fairly good agreement in the hi-res guidance and 12Z HREF
that convection will continue to grow upscale and organize as it
moves generally eastward through the Appalachians. Favorable low
level moisture transport (850 mb flow increases to 25-30 kts) and
storm motions nearly parallel to the mean flow will allow for some
repeating rounds and training. The environmental conditions
supported by the 12Z HREF suggest that the strongest cores will be
capable of producing hourly totals between 1-2" and through 00Z
pockets of 2-4" will be possible in the MPD area. Drier antecedent
conditions due to lack of recent rainfall may limit scope of
impacts, but isolated/localized flash flooding will be possible
given some of the terrain and more vulnerable locations in the MPD
area.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8Tc2Tifq2xua3IWZZiGUNvJH0yeBaSmc9Sx_tceOjwQbnOfuGwfXi0eV6Ts0jkszgR4Q=
9vybB1stzWMVoGnfZaXK_Sg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...JKL...LMK...LWX...MRX...PBZ...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   39368300 39167909 37257899 36868066 37098195=20
            37728333 38178467 38868588 39298543=20

=3D =3D =3D
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