Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1520
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 18:29:02

ACUS11 KWNS 131828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131828=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-132030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1520
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of southern MN and northern IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131828Z - 132030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe-storm risk will continue increasing this afternoon.
A watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Temperatures are quickly climbing into the lower/middle
80s amid upper 60s boundary-layer dewpoints across parts of southern
MN and northern IA -- where a weak low-level confluence zone is
evident. As ascent accompanying a subtle midlevel impulse (evident
in water vapor imagery) crosses the area, an increase in storm
coverage is possible. A unidirectional wind profile characterized by
30-40 kt of effective shear over the area, coupled with continued
diurnal destabilization, should support a few organized clusters and
perhaps supercell structures capable of large hail and locally
damaging winds. Trends are being monitored for a possible watch
issuance.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5FShfX2-KDbBEwsGWAtqyGcxFmvyC5lHnM2wUkUU-oqk1HBUdqkJjPi0S2VBTGUdpR9oShONT=
MWJltKTiOEzISJy8BE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   42789214 42699253 42679291 42679336 42729398 42819476
            43119569 43539612 43889635 44359642 44729624 44859590
            44679535 44369471 44159351 44129261 44029206 43819178
            43449171 43049180 42789214=20


=3D =3D =3D
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