Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1519
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 18:10:00

ACUS11 KWNS 131809
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131809=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-132015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1519
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO and far western KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 131809Z - 132015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in severe-storm potential is expected
during the next couple of hours across parts of eastern CO, and
eventually into far western KS. A watch will be needed for parts of
the area shortly.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate gradual boundary-layer destabilization across
parts of eastern CO -- where moist/east-southeasterly upslope flow
(upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) are in place beneath an EML
plume/steep midlevel lapse rates. As a result, isolated convective
initiation is underway along the edge of remnant outflow from
earlier thunderstorms in eastern CO. While lingering capping at the
base of the EML and antecedent boundary-layer static stability could
limit the coverage of storm development in the short-term, continued
heating and increasing instability should allow for a gradual
increase in development during the next couple of hours.=20

Around 50-60 kt of effective shear (characterized by a long/mostly
straight hodograph) and the aforementioned destabilization will
favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very
large hail and damaging winds. While less certain, a tornado or two
cannot be ruled out given the rich/sheltered boundary-layer moisture
and discrete/semi-discrete supercell mode. A watch will likely be
needed for parts of the area shortly.

...Weinman/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6TwTEpkUDf2-s-6VNx1KjaFeys3c72G5oLIUeFjroSziRESCNncUWc7BmoF3uZGhfKm7FEulG=
RL6kzmp524Vt2OWSnw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   39350436 39860426 40130397 40290365 40330324 40310273
            40270217 40110191 39810165 38910170 37970190 37420200
            37110229 37090354 37210396 37550417 38000432 38840437
            39350436=20


=3D =3D =3D
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