Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1518
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 17:27:00

ACUS11 KWNS 131726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131726=20
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-131830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1518
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern IN...southern
OH...northern/eastern KY...and WV

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 131726Z - 131830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Potential for large hail and damaging winds should exist
with thunderstorms this afternoon. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is draped along/near the Ohio
River into southern/eastern OH at 1715Z. A very moist low-level
airmass, characterized by surface dewpoints generally in the low
70s, is present along/south of this boundary. Although large-scale
ascent remains fairly nebulous, sufficient low-level convergence
along the front coupled with the presence of a strong upper jet over
the OH Valley appears to be supporting the development of convection
across parts of WV early this afternoon. Additional development
should occur farther west along/near the Ohio River into northern
KY/southern OH. Latest mesoanalysis suggests that upwards of
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE is already available to support robust
updrafts, with even stronger instability forecast to develop over
the next few hours with continued daytime heating.

Various VWPs across this region show weak westerly winds gradually
strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Corresponding speed
shear is contributing to around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear,
locally stronger farther west along the Ohio River. Current
expectations are for thunderstorms to gradually continue increasing
in both coverage and intensity this afternoon as additional diurnal
heating occurs. A mix of multicells and supercells posing a threat
for both large hail and damaging winds should occur. Given the
increasing hail/wind threat, Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance will
likely be needed.

...Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!562WGiuyqeYeDdyrHggLbupeu2H6wj0KkYqNv4dVHOMrUUGmpqhiI0GEBAdhW5AKO2IOsUCKV=
uz_wrVbBrDKcfv7CGg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   38738542 39078538 39338368 39598251 39718097 39557969
            38857970 38317985 37918013 37518069 37548196 38018399
            38408488 38738542=20


=3D =3D =3D
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