Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 17:25:56

AWUS01 KWNH 131725
FFGMPD
MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-132325-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0715
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
125 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Upstate New York...Vermont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131725Z - 132325Z

Summary...Scattered thunderstorms developing through this
afternoon will pose a flash flood risk with localized rain rates
greater than 1"/hr and totals of 2-3" possible, particularly
across parts of east-central NY and southern VT.

Discussion...The combination of daytime heating, a moist airmass
characterized by dewpoints in the 60s and precipitable water
values greater than 1.25-1.5", and favorable forcing/lift
associated with an area of low pressure and strong cold front
approaching from the west will lead to an increasing coverage of
thunderstorms across New York that then moves into parts of
Vermont and western Massachusetts later this afternoon.

Radar imagery out of western New York already showing a line of
thunderstorms developing and the most recent hi-res guidance
depicts this activity intensifying and expanding in coverage over
the next several hours while moving eastward with additional
discrete thunderstorms developing out ahead of the main line.

The storm motions should be fairly progressive, especially across
northern New York into parts of central/northern Vermont. On the
southern/southwest flank of the line across east-central NY and
southern VT, the mean flow is likely to be more parallel, allowing
for a slower storm motion and longer duration of heavy rainfall.
This is where the 12Z HREF supports greater confidence for
localized 2-3" totals through 7 pm EDT with hourly totals greater
than 1" possible.

Antecedent conditions are very wet across eastern New York,
Vermont, and western Massachusetts. The lower FFG and higher soil
moisture will result in greater runoff and could lead to higher
impact flash flooding, especially the more impacted and vulnerable
locations from recent heavy rainfall events.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7Tub-C9tCvUUinFNfafL-l6mtWdo8g_jxrFNX3FalNDwuUjL55G5YIu0uJXs-KvYVQfi=
-8EQyMOu_ws5uJRfQ-ieO9U$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45057303 44617217 43707243 42727298 41967430=20
            42127581 42947661 44367606 45017462=20

=3D =3D =3D
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