Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 15:14:55

AWUS01 KWNH 131514
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-132113-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0714
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1114 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...Mississippi and Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131513Z - 132113Z

Summary...Extreme rainfall totals and prolific rain rates will
continue for several more hours, exacerbating ongoing flash
flooding and resulting in additional locally significant impacts.

Discussion...Lingering MCV across portions of central Mississippi
continues to be the focus for backbuilding deep convection that is
producing extreme rain rates (2-3"+/hr) over a very localized area
of east-central Mississippi and far west-central Alabama this
morning. IR satellite imagery continues to indicate cloud tops
cooling while radar imagery shows regeneration/backbuilding on the
northwest side of the convective clusters. MRMS QPF shows pockets
of 4-6" with isolated amounts in excess of 10" since early this
morning.

This activity is expected to continue for several more hours ahead
of an approaching shortwave dropping southeast out of Arkansas.
The past few runs of the HRRR show this activity filling in before
congealing into a more organized line that gradually moves
southeast this afternoon. Until then, the expectation is that the
intense rain rates and extreme rainfall totals will continue.
Additional isolated rainfall amounts of 3-5" and hourly totals in
excess of 2" are expected.

This additional rainfall will only worsen the ongoing flash
flooding in the MPD area, resulting in additional significant
flash flooding impacts that pose a considerable and dangerous
threat to life and property.

Taylor

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-YxXEjo4KsNhHcSNBfmgY7LcXfazk1fsFzix0v8p1I_TKX_xuAuSklIKBGaIxKLW31h9=
tvWpjcpVq4uPQOyRPJk6LBE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MEG...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34228946 33768807 33118744 32558743 32018817=20
            32568980 33299066 33969054=20

=3D =3D =3D
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