Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 07:40:27

ACUS48 KWNS 130740
SWOD48
SPC AC 130738

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
An upper-level low is forecast to move eastward across southern
Ontario from Sunday into Monday. Well to the south of this system, a
moist airmass will likely be in place from the Great Plains eastward
into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Scattered thunderstorms appear
likely to develop within much of this airmass each afternoon. The
greatest chance for severe storms could take place in the central
Plains to the south of a mid-level speed max. A chance of severe
could occur across South Dakota and Nebraska on both Sunday
afternoon and Monday afternoon. During this period, mid-level
heights are forecast to rise across the central and northern Plains.
This introduces uncertainty concerning the magnitude of a severe
threat, mainly due to capping which could persist due to the
presence of a building upper-level ridge.

.....Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
An upper-level trough is forecast to develop in the northwestern
U.S., and move eastward across the northern states from Tuesday to
Thursday. A severe threat may accompany this system as it moves from
the Dakotas eastward to the Great Lakes. A severe threat will also
be possible during the mid week along parts of the middle and
northern Atlantic Seaboard, where a moist and unstable airmass is
forecast. At this time, model forecasts do not have a strong signal
on any specific day late in the Day 4 to 8 period, suggesting that
predictability is low concerning a potential severe weather event.

...Broyles.. 07/13/2023

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