Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 07:33:21 FOUS30 KWBC 130733 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 332 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Day 1 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 13 2023 - 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 ....THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN AND NEAR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...=20 =20 ....Northeast...=20 The 00z guidance has changed from earlier, which led to some morphing of the risk areas across the region. For the Moderate Risk area in and near southern southern VT, there is=20 potential for rounds of heavy rain over very saturated terrain. Broad mid-level northwest flow will continue across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, lifting into more southwest flow across the Appalachians and Northeast as the broad and expansive mid-level trough centered near the Hudson Bay persists. This will provide an environment allowing waves of convection moving through the flow. Most of this development on Thursday will occur along a slow-moving cold front and leading pre-frontal trough. PWs will rise to 1.5-1.75" on W/SW 850mb inflow of 20 kts, with ML CAPE surging during peak heating south of the front to as high as 3000 J/kg. The Moderate Risk area has the potential for overlapping of sufficient moisture, instability, and mean southwest flow parallel to the associated frontal boundary promoting possible cell training. Much of Vermont and New England remains vulnerable due to recent extreme rainfall, where areas of 300-600% of the seven day average rainfall has fallen. The above ingredients support 2"/hr totals, which could total up to 5" locally where training manages to persist for 2-3 hours. Within the Moderate risk area, expect several instances of flash flooding and impacts due to rapid runoff.=20 =20 ....Mid-South to Central Gulf Coast...=20 A Moderate Risk remains over central MS to account for potentially significant rainfall occurring early in the period, expected to begin by 12z Thursday. A noticeable upper shortwave on water vapor imagery is forecast to be drifting, and potentially reinvigorating, as it crosses MS/LA Thursday morning. The low level inflow is expected to be roughly double the mean 850-400 hPa wind, which is very efficient from a heavy rain perspective and generally a feature of warm core lows. The 00z mesoscale guidance suggests similar potential to what occurred over southern AR/northern LA Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, but there are early signs that is evolving differently than 24 hours ago as it is roughly 4-5 hours slower in forming, there is a larger angle between the 850 hPa inflow and mean 850-400 hPa wind, less (but still sufficient) instability available upwind, and initial convection is not training. The exact location is still not evident as convective coverage remains sparse and the MUCAPE gradient is slowly shifting northeast, but the Moderate Risk area is somewhat south of the mesoscale guidance due to the guidance's usual north to northeast bias with organized convection. Portions of this region have received over 300% of their average seven day rainfall, so soils should have some degree of saturation. As the shortwave continues progressing from the Mid-Mississippi Valley and LA, the threat for excessive rainfall during the afternoon and evening hours on Thursday is expected to shift south and east towards the north-central and northeast Gulf Coasts. Here, the 00z HREF probabilities of at least 3"+ and 5"+ in 24 hours continue to support a Slight Risk, which was somewhat reconfigured based on the latest guidance.=20 =20 ....Mid-Mississippi Valley through the Central Appalachians...=20 Convective trends among the global models and CAMs has become a bit more organized and intense from the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Although much of the activity Thursday, which should be widespread, will be generally progressive, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts will allow for storms to organize into multicells and then train to the northeast, with additional enhanced ascent occurring where flow can favorably upslope into terrain. The favorable thermodynamics across this region will support hourly rain totals to 2", which through brief training could produce 2-4" of rain or locally higher amounts in some areas, which would be particularly problematic in the coal fields of WV and KY. Confidence in the exact evolution and development remains modest. Spotty areas have seen above normal rainfall over the past week in this region. The Slight Risk area was drawn to best reflect the highest QPF probabilities overlapping some of the most sensitive soils.=20 ....Central to Southern High Plains...=20 Broad northwest flow on the upwind side of an expansive mid-level trough will drive multiple shortwaves down across the region on Thursday. These impulses will combine with modest upper diffluence within the tail of a departing jet streak to the east and convergence along a weakening front/surface trough moving across the area. A departing MCS in the morning could also produce some priming rainfall, but the greater risk for excessive rain will occur in the evening/at night. During that time, east-southeast low-level inflow will surge to 20-30 kts as a wave of low pressure develops across the High Plains along a stationary front over Colorado. This will draw PWs above 1.5 inches northward, with values as high as 1-1.25" in the High Plains of CO, combined with resupply of MUCAPE approaching 2000 J/kg. This moist ascent will drive a theta-e ridge northward, supporting expanding convection along a surface trough as another impulse moves overhead. Timing of the impulse and its affect on the impinging surface boundary is in question, and if they do not overlap the coverage of storms could be less. The Marginal Risk area captures the heavy rain signals seen in the 00z guidance, which remain scattered with not great agreement in placement. Hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts to 4" are possible wherever cells can train/merge or mesocyclones can form. Some areas in the Marginal Risk have seen greater than 600% of their average seven day rainfall, so soils should be rather saturated. Slight Risk impacts cannot be ruled out.=20 ....Near the southern AZ/NM border... Precipitable water values southern AZ remain 1.5"+ this period, with rather weak flow, implying slow cell motions for any thunderstorms that might develop. ML CAPE should rise to 1000+ J/kg. Temperatures at 700 hPa are near 15C around the time of convective initiation, implying modest mid-level capping. This should allow for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall, like has been seen over the past few days. Raised a Marginal Risk area for this region. =20 Roth Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Jul 14 2023 - 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THE MID-MISSISSIPPI/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS, & NORTHEAST GULF COAST...=20 =20 ....Northeast and Mid-Atlantic...=20 The Slight Risk was contracted based on the 00z guidance, with northern areas trimmed. A weakening frontal boundary and pooling anomalous moisture creates conditions ripe for scattered instances of heavy rain and flash flooding potential. Continued troughing across the eastern Lower 48 will be reinforced by shortwaves embedded within the cyclonic flow which pivot northward on Friday. One of these shortwaves is progged to lift across New England early in the period, helping to drive a weakening cold front eastward across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Ahead of this cold front, a warm front is progged to surge north into Canada, leaving impressive thermodynamics within the warm sector across the Northeast. SW=20 flow within this warm sector is progged to reach 20-25 kts, advecting anomalous PWs of 1.75" and MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg northeastward. As a pre-frontal trough sharpens during the=20 afternoon, coinciding with peak instability, widespread showers and thunderstorms should develop and then lift northeast along this trough with rain totals up to 2"/hr. Aligned mean winds indicate training is likely, lengthening the duration of rain rates which will otherwise be limited by 20-25 kts of storm motions, though erosion of instability should allow convection to shift somewhat with time. This training could result in an axis of 2" of rainfall, with local amounts of 4". The antecedent soils are saturated across New England. These vulnerable soils indicate that any heavy rainfall will quickly become runoff and may lead to renewed flash flooding. Although uncertainty remains with how convective evolution will occur Friday, the Slight Risk was adjusted to match the best 00z model consensus for heavy rainfall. Additional adjustments to this risk areas are possible over the next day or two as more confidence on rainfall rates is added with CAM guidance.=20 =20 =20 ....Central Plains, Midwest, Lower MS Valley...=20 A broad Slight Risk area was maintained though shifted south from continuity which extends from eastern KS through western KY/TN into eastern MS, with guidance less agreeable than preferred, for organized convection moving across the area. Thunderstorms will be driven by shortwaves and associated vorticity maxima rotating eastward in northwest to west mid-level flow, impinging upon an elongated cold front draped west to east through the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The shortwave interacting with this front will drive impressive ascent into favorable thermodynamics characterized by PWs rising to 2"+ co-located with a corridor of 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE. The 850mb inflow out of the SSW at 20-30 kts will robustly resupply these thermodynamics into the area, and as effective bulk shear climbs to 50 kts Friday night, organized convection, possibly a potent MCS, will move across the area. Due to the inherent difficulty in forecasting the placement of these MCS at any time range results in lowered confidence than is typical so the the Slight Risk remains broad and uncertain. While hourly rain totals to 2.5" and local amounts to 5" are possible within the Slight Risk area, uncertainty has kept the risk level Slight. The extension into eastern MS was to accommodate both the 00z GFS/NAM/to some degree 00z ECMWF solutions showing additional heavy rainfall and heavy rainfall expected to fall Thursday morning, which is starting to materialize at the time of this discussion's sending. Additional adjustments, including to the risk category, are probable during the next couple days, but the expectation for at least scattered instances of flash flooding continues for Friday.=20 ....Southern AL/FL Panhandle.. Precipitable water values in the 2.25-2.5" range along with convergent low-level inflow near and south of a front is expected to lead to heavy rainfall once diurnal heating ramps up the instability/CAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. This setup usually favors a Slight Risk. The ingredients suggest than hourly totals to 3", with local amounts to 6", would be expected. Some guidance shows the potential for local 8" amounts in or near the region. The 00z HREF probabilities are supportive, showing a broad area of 50-80% of 3"+ during the early portion of the period, and close to 50% chance of 5"+ near Pensacola FL. This was sufficient to elevate the risk to Slight for this region, which was coordinated with the TAE/Tallahassee FL and MOB/Mobile AL forecast offices. =20 ....In and near southern NM... Precipitable water values rise toward 1.75" in southern AZ and the low-level flow picks up out of the west-southwest as 700 hPa troughing develops across NM. However, temperatures at 700 hPa are on the rise, with the atmosphere modestly capped, which despite the available moisture should keep thunderstorm coverage isolated to widely scattered similar to previous days. A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall was added to cover the potential for hourly totals to 2" where cells manage to merge and/or train. Roth/Snell=20 Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 15 2023 - 12Z Sun Jul 16 2023 ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR IN AND NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES... ....Northeast NM/TX and OK Panhandles... There is extremely good model agreement, particularly for this time range, on an area of heavy rainfall forecast across this region. ML CAPE is expected to rise towards 2000 J/kg while PWs rise to 1-1.75" for that section of the High Plains near and north of an apparent front. Low-level inflow of ~25 kts is expected to increase moisture convergence along the boundary. Given the available moisture, hourly rain totals to 2" are possible where cells can train along a WNW-ESE axis near and north of the front, or where mesocyclones can form. Local amounts to 4" appear possible in this environment, though the 00z Canadian Regional suggests that the ceiling is closer to 6", though it is uniquely high when compared to the other guidance. There is a wide range in the past seven days of rainfall in this area, with ground conditions likely more saturated due to the much heavier rainfall seen in the eastern portion of the Slight. For the most part, continuity was generally maintained. ....Eastern portion of the Lower 48... Heavy rainfall is possible anywhere within the southern and eastern periphery of a strong mid-level low centered over southern Canada and its related upper level trough near and ahead of a cold front. PWs will be generally 1.5-2", low-level flow will be roughly 20 kts out of the west-southwest, and ML CAPE should rise to ~2000 J/kg. The concern within this large risk area would be hourly rain totals to 2", and local amounts to 4", which would be most problematic in areas that have received heavy rainfall during this past week as well as the preceding couple days within portions of the Southeast (in and near eastern TN) and Northeast (southeast NY/eastern PA/NJ) and within urban areas. Ahead of the progressive front and near the lee trough east of the Appalachians would be the best candidates for some concentration to the convective pattern. Should a better heavy rainfall signal arise, a Slight Risk would be possible. Roth Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6PELSNZHOA6dUJc8H7ogLJRA6AnOtmok8FaMfd_4-ApE= 1mc_Lb2RLXq7lWLcLmQ7gAfKWotISti5c7ifX1xvNKTDeMU$=20 Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6PELSNZHOA6dUJc8H7ogLJRA6AnOtmok8FaMfd_4-ApE= 1mc_Lb2RLXq7lWLcLmQ7gAfKWotISti5c7ifX1xvZwMOoC8$=20 Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go= v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6PELSNZHOA6dUJc8H7ogLJRA6AnOtmok8FaMfd_4-ApE= 1mc_Lb2RLXq7lWLcLmQ7gAfKWotISti5c7ifX1xvzzlMk8Q$=20 $$ =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. 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