Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1515
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 07:20:57

ACUS11 KWNS 130720
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130720=20
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-130845-

Mesoscale Discussion 1515
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0220 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

Areas affected...southeast MO and  northeast AR

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...480...

Valid 130720Z - 130845Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479, 480
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe gusts may continue for another
couple of hours across southeast MO into northeast AR.

DISCUSSION...A bowing cluster of storms tracking east/southeast
across south-central MO will continue to shift into parts of
southeast MO/northeast AR the next 1-2 hours. This bow has shown
some better organization, and increasing velocity signatures aloft
(about 4-6 kft ARL). The downstream airmass remains very moist and
moderately unstable.  Effective shear magnitude around 25-30 kt
should aid in maintaining this convection with southeast extent. It
is unclear how far east/southeast near-severe caliber winds may
continue as low-level inhibition increases toward the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Instability also wanes with eastward extent and convection
will move further away from the eastern extent of a modest low-level
jet. While this may support a gradual weakening trend with time,
expected that 45-60 mph gusts will persist for at least the next 1-2
hours. The need for a downstream watch to the east of WW 479 and WW
480 is uncertain, and trends will continue to be monitored.

...Leitman.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!63xBhzrJ40FyB7HwxQH2xSDucPIJn7YeOFsQ7elMe_jtO-YiVGL5nD9mVoI2v642EqVmB33Wb=
o_vhtwT2gdrE2V5C8Y$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37499192 36969031 36298959 35958969 35679027 35819111
            36069185 36569242 36989260 37499192=20


=3D =3D =3D
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