Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 05:51:26 ACUS02 KWNS 130551 SWODY2 SPC AC 130549 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the central and southern Plains on Friday. Marginally severe storms could also occur outside of the Slight Risk in parts of the central U.S., and from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. ....Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of the U.S. on Friday, as a well-defined cold front advances southward across the central Plains. Along and south of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s F. The moist airmass will contribute to moderate instability by afternoon in much of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. As surface temperatures warm during the day, scattered convective initiation will occur from near the front southward across the warm sector. MCS development will be possible as cells increase in coverage during the late afternoon and early evening. Model forecasts continue to move the cold front southward into south-central Kansas by 00Z/Saturday. NAM forecast soundings just to the south of the front have MLCAPE peaking in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 40 knots with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 7.0 C/km. This environment will support severe thunderstorm development, and supercells with large hail will be possible. As cell coverage increases during late afternoon, a wind-damage threat is also expected to develop. Wind damage would be most favored along the leading edge of a line segment, especially if MCS development takes place. Further east into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the afternoon and evening. Although instability is not forecast to be as strong in the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley, an isolated severe threat could still develop as low-level lapse rates steepen during the afternoon. Strong wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats. ....Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England... A subtle shortwave trough is forecast to move into the Northeast on Friday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in place from eastern North Carolina to southern New England. Pockets of moderate instability may develop along the moist corridor by afternoon. Thunderstorms that form in the Appalachian foothills around midday will move eastward into the Atlantic Coastal Plains during the afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain below 30 knots in most areas, low-level lapse rates will become steep during the day. This could support a threat for marginally severe wind gusts. Hail will also be possible. ...Broyles.. 07/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .