Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 02:06:48

AWUS01 KWNH 130206
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0711
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Souhtwest Missouri into Southeast Kansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130204Z - 130800Z

Summary...Increasing southwesterly low level jet will bring
ingredients for expanding heavy thunderstorms and flash flooding
overnight to southwest Missouri into southeast Kansas. The risk
for repeating activity raises risk for heavy rain exceeding 2"/hr
which would support localized to scattered flash flooding in spite
of dry preconditions.

Discussion...A pair of supercells along the south-central KS/MO
border have developed ahead of an impulse over northeast KS. WNWly
upper level flow rounding the upper ridge axis extending into West
Texas. Extreme instability exceeding 5000 J/kg MUCAPE over
northeast OK will shift northeast and PW of 1.8" to 2" over
eastern KS will increase as it shifts south/southeast.

Initial activity should shift eastward, but as it becomes more
organized the upwind propagation vectors indicate a southward
motion, expanding activity over southwest MO. Further activity is
also expected to develop over southeast KS ahead of a cold front
associated with the impulse.

This area has been very dry for more than the past week, so FFG is
at its maximum, around 4"/3hr, so as of now only localized flash
flooding is anticipated through 07Z.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6YiWHbfYm0lUtzSuJuMnSe-eHxqkDLGWFBmgKv8wp2y9qjDlIpiePfH4yG5KZpBcbKWi=
cUL4ngWYVFAQ8TuC5eQJevU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38199499 38189330 37699188 36889164 36329228=20
            36769540 37579623=20

=3D =3D =3D
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