Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1510
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 01:22:23

ACUS11 KWNS 130122
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130121=20
NEZ000-130315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1510
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0821 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of western/central NE

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 130121Z - 130315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms will remain possible through the
evening, with a threat of large hail and localized strong/severe
gusts.

DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has recently developed across the
NE Panhandle, with 2-inch hail recently reported northeast of
Scottsbluff. While buoyancy is not overly strong, with MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg per recent mesoanalyses, deep-layer shear is quite
favorable (effective shear of 50+ kt), and the ongoing supercell may
continue to propagate along a weak surface boundary into
west-central NE. Hail (possibly very large in the short term) will
be the primary threat, though localized strong/severe gusts will
also be possible.=20

With the short-term threat expected to remain quite isolated, watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely. Some increase in storm
coverage is possible later tonight within a modest low-level warm
advection regime, though it remains unclear as to whether any
organized upscale growth (with a corresponding increase in
severe-wind risk) will occur.

...Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7n6eAd6PbkXztyV2rNtAuyDpw8kwDPyoYm0tIZmRsvgg3j9wC0X7ITXODRt6AEeAGEA5eXEw8=
SxgIKsbq4UR2tUhcP8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...CYS...

LAT...LON   42280337 42200314 41950135 41659972 40959931 40819959
            40860110 40930174 41190296 41350334 41700363 41950368
            42280337=20


=3D =3D =3D
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