Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 01:06:55

ACUS01 KWNS 130106
SWODY1
SPC AC 130105

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN INDIANA
INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

....SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes remain possible for parts of northern Indiana into
southern Lower Michigan over the next few hours. Scattered damaging
winds (some 75+ mph) and large to very large hail will be possible
this evening for parts of central/eastern Kansas into
central/southern Missouri.

....Synopsis...
A shortwave trough continues to move through the Great Lakes region.
Strong to severe storms will continue to move out of Illinois into
northern Indiana and southern Michigan this evening. Damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes will remain possible given the favorable
kinematic environment sampled by area VAD data.

Strong buoyancy is in place across Kansas into western Missouri. As
the low-level jet increases tonight, the expectation is for one or
more clusters of storms to develop in parts of central/southeastern
Kansas. These storms will initially be capable of large to very
large hail given the favorable supercell wind profile. With time,
this convection should grow upscale and pose a greater risk of
severe/damaging winds. Some of these winds may exceed 75 mph.

A modest low-level jet into the central High Plains has helped
initiate convection in the Nebraska Panhandle. Additional storms are
possible tonight. Large to very large hail has already been reported
with the current activity. Hail is expected to remain the greatest
threat, though isolated strong/severe winds are possible as well.

...Wendt.. 07/13/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.