Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 00:50:48

AWUS01 KWNH 130050
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0710
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Central and Southern Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130048Z - 130530Z

Summary...Convergence of outflow over south-central Mississippi
should trigger renewed heavy convective development that expands
and drifts east overnight. The slow motion and risk for repeating
activity raises risk for heavy rain exceeding 2"/hr which would
support localized to scattered flash flooding.

Discussion...Multi-cell thunderstorm cluster along a boundary over
southern MS is sending outflow northwest and toward outflow from
ongoing lighter activity over northern LA which is associated with
a very slow moving mid-level impulse. An axis of 2000 J/kg MUCAPE
and PW of 2.25" to 2.5" in this area of imminent convergence
should allow rapid development of heavy thunderstorms this
evening. Veering light mean layer westerly becoming northwesterly
flow around 10kt will cause slow storm motion and a risk for
2"+/hr rainfall that could repeat.

Recent HRRRs seem to vastly underplay this potent heavy rain
scenario and solutions of 5"+ over large areas of central MS like
the 12Z ARWs/FV3LAM may be in play tonight. This risk of heavy
rain should be heavily monitored as considerable flash flooding is
possible.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-i-m58loOB8cts4d_3Txg6PfA-kfJevhPZXy2sxObjW6miG4wNRbY0eYCYnc9BfgC35C=
fSEjR0DlqNFT-wNWwufluio$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33698877 33368809 32728772 32288784 31248824=20
            30968861 30788924 30668976 30659028 30809106=20
            31709098 32459061 32879018 33408970=20

=3D =3D =3D
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