Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1509
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 00:26:53

ACUS11 KWNS 130026
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130026=20
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-130200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Eastern KS into western/central MO and extreme
northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 130026Z - 130200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage is expected to increase this evening, with
a threat of hail, severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Watch
issuance is likely.

DISCUSSION...Some increase in convection has recently been noted
within a midlevel cloud deck across east-central KS, which is likely
the beginning of an increase in storm coverage and intensity that
will continue through the evening. Steep midlevel lapse rates,
moderate to strong buoyancy, and effective shear of 40+ kt (as noted
on the 00Z TOP sounding) will support organized convection this
evening as storm coverage increases within a low-level warm
advection regime.=20

Initial discrete storms could pose a risk of very large hail, given
the favorable buoyancy and shear. While low-level flow/shear is
currently rather weak, some increase is possible this evening, and a
tornado cannot be ruled out, especially with any supercell that is
sustained within the modified outflow where winds are locally
backed. Some upscale growth is possible later this evening, which
would pose an increasing severe-wind risk as storms tend to
propagate south/southeastward with time. Watch issuance is likely
within the hour in response to these threats.

...Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4D4U68myFDgydZ1KA2cXgyyS83GaepPG2wCFxVqXc8cjxYyC01n453KTVS8no6tIyg5-raU84=
7ugk2xyXJ7kGdfnDbs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   39049680 39359485 39299394 39289378 38809260 37029232
            36549438 36899575 37609690 37879698 38399712 39049680=20


=3D =3D =3D
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