Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jul 13 2023 00:06:18

AWUS01 KWNH 130006
FFGMPD
MIZ000-130605-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0709
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
805 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Southern Lower Michigan

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 130005Z - 130605Z

Summary...A compact low pressure system tracking east over
southern Michigan tonight will bring heavy rain and a risk for
localized flash flooding into the overnight.

Discussion...Increasing southerly flow up and over a warm front
draped across southern Lower MI will continue to advect higher PW
and unstable air toward central Lower MI this evening. Lift from
the warm front as well as upper level diffluence from the left
exit region of a jet streak currently extending zonally over the
north-central Plains and IA will support intensifying clusters of
heavy showers and thunderstorms generally north of the warm front
and ahead of the low center this evening into the early morning
hours.

The mesoscale environment for repeating heavy rainfall continues
to improve over southern Lower MI with dewpoints around 70F, PW of
1.75" which could locally reach 2" tonight, MUCAPE of 500 to 1000
J/kg, and strong mean layer flow veering westerly/roughly parallel
to the frontal boundary.

CAMs have been rather consistent today featuring a swath of 2 to
5" tonight across south-central portions of the Lower Peninsula
near I-96 to I-69. Despite the earlier stratiform rain and cloud
cover, the strong dynamics of this system look to overcome those
limitations and bring this notable heavy rain swath. Much of
southern Lower MI has been dry over the past week, but 18Z HREF
probabilities for 3"/3hr which is roughly the 3hr FFG for the I-96
corridor of SW MI is 20 to 30% and areas in SE MI have lower FFG,
dropping below 2"/3hr around and north of Detroit.

Therefore, flash flooding can be considered possible tonight.


Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!57oXwGs-sprn4D1zgG2qZ3Wq5etHW1z2TBn7HNvQdw0LYqtpAzSCZzSfZIkDMWw2Up72=
fLMFSdjdIN0mpQHOKzBQjjs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...IWX...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   43548246 42638234 42308258 42098302 42118403=20
            42008568 42108666 42838636 42988564 43098468=20
            43358359=20

=3D =3D =3D
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