Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1507
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 21:59:23

ACUS11 KWNS 122159
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122159=20
ILZ000-MOZ000-122330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Parts of northern/eastern MO into a small part of
western IL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122159Z - 122330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may intensify into early evening as they move
southeastward, with a threat of isolated hail and damaging gusts.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently developed in northern MO.
Based on satellite and mesoanalysis data, this activity is clearly
elevated, and likely will remain so in the short term, given
substantial MLCINH across the region. However, even for elevated
convection that is likely based around 800 mb, MUCAPE in excess of
1500 J/kg and sufficient deep-layer shear (supported by rather
strong midlevel west-northwesterlies) conditionally favor the
potential for a few organized storms. If any stronger cells/clusters
can mature and be sustained into the early evening, some severe
threat may evolve with this activity. Steep midlevel lapse rates
will favor some hail potential, while a relatively warm and
well-mixed boundary layer could support isolated damaging gusts,
despite the relatively strong MLCINH.

Uncertainty remains rather high regarding the evolution of this
convection into the early evening, given its elevated nature and
relative lack of stronger large-scale ascent across the area. Watch
issuance is currently considered unlikely, but will become possible
if organized storms develop or appear imminent.

...Dean/Guyer.. 07/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!864Hlw6tB2ALiH4wUfF1EPW4ikU585cj7nklDuob-v9JLyfeAc7sTvdec7ys8F94Zi73CPWRL=
Bd5AsMVxVTCWgM3CYs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON   38009052 39109345 39569350 39899337 39789219 39569145
            39249070 39049034 38648961 38388969 38109003 38009052=20


=3D =3D =3D
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