Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 19:51:13

AWUS01 KWNH 121951
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-130045-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0708
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...Inland from the Central Gulf Coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 121946Z - 130045Z

Summary...Diurnally driven thunderstorms continue to congeal
inland from the central Gulf Coast and up to the MS/AL border this
afternoon. The slow motion and presence of numerous outflow
boundaries raises risk for locally repeats of heavy rain exceeding
2"/hr which would support localized flash flooding.

Discussion...Multi-cell thunderstorm cluster over far southern MS
and southwest AL will continue drifting east into the evening
hours. Recent hourly rainfall estimates from regional radars of
2.5" are noted over these areas.

The mesoscale environment for heavy rainfall continues across the
region with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, PW of 2.2" to 2.4",
MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg, and light mean layer westerly flow
around 10kt resulting in slow storm motion.

The concern is for the multi-cell cluster to expand back to the
coast and into southeast LA with further general eastern motion
into the FL Panhandle and to south-central AL. Areas of heavy rain
in southern MS and along the western FL/AL border over the past
day lead to increased flash flood risk areas into this evening.

Jackson

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6WQ7BHwIOFa-qUuSMPtBloko3sGUF191iqLrUTPq0bXSUz9Bmf3Y0jC09rp5TlVfsXCq=
eoR5xC_AAavsrxY16mfEE30$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32518878 32358643 31798627 31008651 30698691=20
            30058824 30048930 30288999 30739034 31538969=20
            32408935=20

=3D =3D =3D
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