Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 16:41:48

ACUS01 KWNS 121641
SWODY1
SPC AC 121640

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible across much of Missouri,
Illinois, and adjacent portions of the central Plains and Midwest on
Wednesday. Damaging winds and large hail should be the main threats,
with some potential for significant (75+ mph) severe winds across
parts of Missouri, Kansas and vicinity.

....Northern IL/southern WI east to northwest OH/southern lower MI...

Current MCS continues a general weakening trend based on IR cloud
tops, radar trends and recent reports. Air mass recovery in the wake
of the morning convection currently appears plausible, aided by a
modestly enhanced low-level jet later this afternoon and evening.
Steepening mid-level lapse rates will contribute to moderate/pockets
of strong MLCAPE this afternoon, and coupled with 40-50 kts of
deep-layer shear would result in a favorable parameter space for
supercell development by late afternoon/early evening with all
severe hazards possible. Will introduce a small 5 percent tornado
probability area across this region, where forecast sounding
hodograph structure appears most favorable for low-level
rotation/tornado potential east of a weak surface low.

....KS/MO/OK this evening...
Redevelopment of severe storms appears probable late this
afternoon/early evening in the vicinity of an outflow boundary that
continues to slow its southward motion across northern portions of
KS/MO. Strong/locally extreme MLCAPE is anticipated near/south of
this boundary with substantial shear in the cloud-bearing layer.
Storms that develop will likely initially possess supercell
characteristics with severe hail (possibly significant) and wind,
with eventual upscale growth into one or two MCSs capable of
potentially significant severe gusts. The Enhanced Risk area has
been reoriented based on expected outflow boundary location later
this afternoon and a consensus of 12z CAM guidance/HREF ensemble max
probabilities.

....IN/OH into New England...
A surface quasistationary front currently extends from northern IN
into NY and New England.  Substantial heating is underway east of
the front, which should allow for destabilization and scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development. This area lies along the
southern fringe of stronger west/southwesterly flow aloft, with
25-35 knots of deep-layer shear.  This may be sufficient for a few
strong storms later today capable of gusty/damaging winds.

...Bunting/Weinman.. 07/12/2023

$$

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