Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1504
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 12:25:51

ACUS11 KWNS 121225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121225=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-121400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0725 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Areas affected...far southeast NE into western/central IA and
northern MO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

Valid 121225Z - 121400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts will remain possible across WW 476
over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...A well organized bowing MCS will continue to quickly
shift east/southeast across the region this morning. Measured gusts
have decreased across IA compared to earlier gusts over eastern NE.
Lower instability with eastward extent, as well as weakening
low-level flow, and a persistent cluster of convection across
central IA ahead of the main MCS, may all contribute to a gradually
diminishing severe risk after 14z. Nevertheless, gusts of 45-60 mph
appear likely to persist another couple of hours as convection moves
across a moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment. There
is some potential that after a relative morning lull, the MCS could
reinvigorate later this morning as convection approaches IL, though
confidence in this scenario is low.

...Leitman.. 07/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!98NioOdljABiez5MInjt5xpoIkomyayV93uuU5pE_YWJF6uQ74wvrizDWZVnDFQwAbJT1taa9=
zvMOQai5ixhvGpXYh0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   42799453 42189282 41259201 40689236 40139347 39909445
            39919537 40069629 40539657 40899642 41179529 41509490
            42309477 42639475 42799453=20


=3D =3D =3D
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