Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 08:49:19

ACUS48 KWNS 120849
SWOD48
SPC AC 120847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0347 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2023

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

....DISCUSSION...
....Saturday/Day 4 and Sunday/Day 5...
An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Great
Lakes region over the weekend. A moist airmass is forecast to remain
in place from the southern and central Plains eastward into the
Appalachians. Within this moist airmass, a severe threat appears
most likely to develop ahead of the trough from the Ohio Valley into
the eastern Great Lakes on Saturday, and in parts of the Northeast
on Sunday. Deep-layer shear is forecast to be at or below 30 knots
across most of the eastern third of the nation over the weekend,
which suggests that any severe threat will probably remain isolated
and marginal.

....Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8...
An upper-level low is forecast to move southeastward into the
northern Great Lakes on Monday. An associated upper-level trough is
forecast to move eastward across into the Great Lakes region on
Tuesday, and into the Northeast on Wednesday. Early in the week, a
cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Ohio
Valley. A severe threat will be possible near and ahead of the front
from the lower Great Lakes on Monday into parts of the Northeast on
Tuesday.

Further west into parts of the central and northern Plains,
northwest mid-level flow is forecast to persist early in the week.
Scattered thunderstorm development will be possible in a moist
airmass over the central Plains each afternoon from Monday into
Tuesday. Isolated severe storms could develop with this moist
airmass in areas that heat up the most each afternoon and evening.
Thunderstorms with severe potential will again be possible in parts
of the north-central states on Wednesday. Model forecasts suggest
that a pocket of moderate to strong instability will be possible
across parts of the central and northern Plains early in the week.
Where this pocket develops will be the key to determining the
spatial distribution of any severe threat.

...Broyles.. 07/12/2023

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