Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1501
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 04:35:17

ACUS11 KWNS 120435
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120434=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-120530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...South Dakota...Northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 120434Z - 120530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be warranted soon to
account for convection spreading/developing east across South
Dakota/northern Nebraska. Hail/wind are the primary risks.

DISCUSSION...Short-wave trough over eastern MT is beginning to dig
southeast toward the western Dakotas. Considerable amount of
convection has developed ahead of this feature and currently extends
from northeast WY into northern SD. While an MCS has not fully
matured over this region, a weak MCV may be developing northeast of
RAP which may encourage upscale growth over the next few hours into
central SD, especially as LLJ strengthens in response to the
approaching short wave. Several severe supercells persist across the
Black Hills region and these are likely generating large hail. With
time, some wind threat may develop if an MCS actually materializes
across this region. New severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
issued by 05z.

...Darrow/Guyer.. 07/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4LKd4XVotEOGBDfhhKlyrKkJszhVmjQdDjDaQ-HiKWqj_B-WaEHBjzIpQV7lMPo-mLbHdRboS=
LF3mUlZdRaNgm4Pfe0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   45210201 43949706 42179767 43350308 45210201=20


=3D =3D =3D
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