Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 01:00:17 ACUS01 KWNS 120100 SWODY1 SPC AC 120058 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ....SUMMARY... Supercells capable of large to very large hail continue to be possible in the High Plains this evening. Scattered damaging/severe wind gusts appear possible in north-central into northeast Nebraska this evening as convection near the Black Hills grows upscale into the overnight. ....Synopsis... A potent shortwave trough continues to move southeastward through Montana into the Northern Plains this evening. Convection has developed within the higher terrain of Montana/Wyoming into the Black Hills. These supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very large hail and isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. With a surface boundary draped from near the Black Hills southeastward into the Omaha, NE vicinity, there is increasing confidence that storms this evening will grow upscale and propagate along this boundary into the overnight. Strong flow aloft for this time of year will contribute to 50-60 kts of shear parallel to the surface boundary with a strengthening low-level jet helping to maintain moderate buoyancy across much of Nebraska even later tonight. Mid-level lapse rates and wind profiles observed at this evenings LBF and OAX soundings support the potential for scattered damaging/severe wind gusts to occur in parts of north-central and northeast Nebraska. While some surface cooling will occur, forecast soundings do not become overly stable and parcel should remain buoyant given the expected stronger cold-pool forcing. The eastward extent of the risk does remain somewhat uncertain given the diurnal timing, but strong/damaging winds remain possible even potentially into far western Iowa by Wednesday morning. Warm advection may promote thunderstorm development in the ArkLaTex vicinity later tonight. Isolated strong/damaging winds and perhaps small hail will be possible with this activity. ...Wendt.. 07/12/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .