Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1500
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jul 12 2023 00:27:46

ACUS11 KWNS 120027
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120027=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-120200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...Northern High Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473...474...

Valid 120027Z - 120200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473, 474
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will spread southeast across the
northern High Plains this evening. Large hail will be common with
this activity.

DISCUSSION...Heights are being suppressed across MT/northern WY
early this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that will
soon begin to dig southeast toward the western Dakotas. Scattered
severe supercells have evolved ahead of this feature across eastern
MT into western SD and latest MRMS radar data suggest several
updrafts are generating hail in excess of 2 inches. Later this
evening LLJ should respond to the short wave and increase across
western NE. This should encourage upscale growth as convection
spreads southeast. Over the last hour or so, a few updrafts have
struggled over Cherry County NE along the well-defined synoptic
boundary. Given that surface temperatures are only in the 80s along
this wind shift convection may continue to struggle to initiate.
Even so, multiple thunderstorm clusters will spread across western
SD toward northern NE later this evening. At that time a new watch
may be warranted.

...Darrow.. 07/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6ABDAqjldSpmFP0vdCQ4jywpggs_CC3NW0k9bAUz9OpN9i1phKLYf68j_hqNCPITyVTxSj84z=
wSiipI1vm-n08ZZMiY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46660289 45540201 43940149 43119985 42420081 43440423
            44880643 46890493 46660289=20


=3D =3D =3D
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