Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1499
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 19:42:13

ACUS11 KWNS 111942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111941=20
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-112115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1499
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of northern Illinois...far northwest
Indiana...and far eastern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 111941Z - 112115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon across northern Illinois and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Storms developed earlier this afternoon along the
intersection of a lake breeze and cold front across northeast
Illinois earlier this afternoon. Storm propagation quickly took
these storms to the cool side of the boundary with a less unstable
and more capped marine airmass. However, additional thunderstorms
have now developed west of the lake breeze along the cold front in
northern Illinois. These storms will have a longer residence time in
the more unstable airmass and in the region of convergence along the
surface front. Therefore, the chance for strong to isolated severe
storms seems more likely than ongoing storms across northeast
Illinois. Overall, weak shear (~15 knots per LOT VWP) should limit
storm organization and intensity and thus a watch is unlikely.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6anz4lAgKaoi6hNct67EAhPQNuSYG1Rg-x4wnInRwLaGvgdKmrq3wYAYWY6C-uqSVMUI4pOZ5=
11P-lA7R4Kw-DP1lJk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41849095 41959035 41929027 41958977 42078916 42108860
            42148788 41848684 41458683 41038773 41048911 41109035
            41339083 41519097 41849095=20


=3D =3D =3D
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