Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 19:05:57

AWUS01 KWNH 111905
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-120000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0700
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona...Far Southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111850Z - 120000Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are bubbling across portions of the
Southwest this afternoon. Slow moving downpours may yield some
instances of flash flooding through this evening, particularly
atop burn scar areas.

Discussion...Visible satellite imagery depicts a gradual uptick in
diurnally driven thunderstorm coverage and intensity over the last
hour or so, anchored to the terrain in southeast Arizona and far
southwest New Mexico. Within the most intense cores by the Gila
Mountains, recent MRMS radar estimates depicted hourly rainfall
rates approaching .4-.5"/hr. This activity is occurring partially
along the fringe of a plume of anomalous subtropical moisture on
the western flank of a subtropical ridge anchored atop the
Southwest. In fact, the 12z sounding out of Tuscon sampled a PWAT
of 1.7" which would be above the 90th percentile for this time of
year. Instability currently remains weak across the area of
interest (SPC mesoanalysis currently depicts 100-250 MLCAPE and a
fair amount of MLCIN across the area). With additional heating
however, upwards of 500-1000 J/Kg of MLCAPE is forecast to
materialize over the next several hours which should foster
additional storm development further south and west across
southern Arizona. Given the abundant column moisture in place and
weak instability, .5-1"/hr rates are likely in places within the
most intense convective cores this afternoon.

Owing to the subtropical ridge overhead, vertical shear will
remain negligible throughout the afternoon (5-10 kts in the
850-300 mb layer) which will limit overall convective
organization, but will lengthen rainfall duration before storms
collapse. Through 0z tonight, the 12Z HREF shows spotty totals
upwards of 1-1.25" across southern and eastern Arizona into far
southwest New Mexico where storm coverage is highest from diurnal
forcing and outflow boundary collisions. This could lead to spotty
instances of flash flooding, especially with any rainfall atop
sensitive burn scar areas.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!64JYK6uvlIccumlxRIyQjU2YoNU5R1-kVagcnOaZu_M22RwnSA5AvUKUlIuK8hUL94Gy=
1mQik1Dra2_dt95ASq7C-WI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34420928 34000754 33200764 32980843 32610880=20
            31430892 31210977 31361103 31621193 32311193=20
            32611091 33311027 34060997=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.