Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 12:50:19

AWUS01 KWNH 111250
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-111607-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0698...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
849 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Corrected for Omission of rainfall timing

Areas affected...East-central OK...Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111237Z - 111607Z

Summary...A decaying MCS continues this morning across portions of
east-central OK into northeast TX. Rainfall rates upwards of
1.5-1.75"/hr will likely support some instances of flash flooding
through the next several hours given highly saturated conditions
in place.

Discussion...Regional radar and IR imagery over the last several
hours depict a gradually decaying MCS with an embedded MCV across
portions of OK and northeast TX, on the cool side of a stationary
front analyzed in the region. Although the areal extent of cooling
cloud tops has waned over the last few hours, a favorable
saturated mesoscale environment remains across central OK into
northeast TX to support the convection with 2-2.2" PWATS, 2000
J/kg MUCAPE, and warm cloud layers of 13-14,000 ft noted by recent
mesoanalysis. Accordingly, this activity produced prolific
rainfall and elevated FLASH responses across central OK earlier,
with multi-source estimates of 4-7" noted.

Meanwhile, a weakness in Corfidi vectors (5-10 kts) was noted
across southeast OK into northeast TX where 20-25 kts of sw'ly
925-850 mb inflow was impinging upon the front/composite outflow
boundary, while upstream activity was translating eastward along
the 850-300 mb mean wind vector (15-20 kts). In all, this suggests
periods of training and lengthened residence times of heavy
rainfall with rates upwards of 1.5-1.75"/hr through the next
several hours, with an additional 2-3" expected across southeast
OK possibly into northeast TX through 16Z. This is expected to
lead to additional instances of flash flooding, particularly atop
areas which saw earlier very heavy rainfall.

Asherman

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-hvrFTMK76QQvExZ-RPwgD45_BBoWdmjY46JPjU_o2fr6t66_rn9yy3YzA3ZcRZ_Ivuw=
79W77Wzla0l2q705lMVUdjc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   35439702 35359633 35019525 34329468 33529493=20
            33529608 33999735 34699779 35169766=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.