Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 08:27:10

ACUS48 KWNS 110827
SWOD48
SPC AC 110825

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0325 AM CDT Tue Jul 11 2023

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Only subtle changes to the large-scale pattern are currently
anticipated during most of the extended range. A longwave trough
will likely persist from the north-central into parts of the eastern
CONUS, as a deep upper-level cyclone continues to meander across
parts of Ontario/Manitoba into this weekend. The upper ridge over
the Southwest/southern Rockies is forecast to persist and possibly
amplify into parts of the Great Basin. A broad belt of moderate
midlevel northwesterly flow will persist between these upper-level
features.

Some organized severe-thunderstorm potential will likely evolve from
D4/Friday into at least D6/Sunday across parts of the central Plains
into the lower/mid MS Valley within the northwesterly flow regime,
though the usual uncertainties remain regarding the favored
corridors on any particular day, due to the likely influence of
antecedent convection on the relevant surface boundaries and
destabilization. There is some potential for a severe threat to
expand into parts of the northern Plains early next week, as the
upper ridge amplifies over the Southwest.

Periodic severe threats may also evolve from D4/Friday into the
weekend across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, within the
cyclonic-flow regime east of the primary upper-level trough.
Deep-layer shear may remain somewhat marginal within this regime,
but sufficient to support some organized convection within a moist
and modestly unstable environment.

...Dean.. 07/11/2023

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