Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 06:15:45 AWUS01 KWNH 110615 FFGMPD ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-111205- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0697 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 215 AM EDT Tue Jul 11 2023 Areas affected...Much of Oklahoma...Parts of Adjacent Northeast TX/Southwest AR... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 110615Z - 111205Z SUMMARY...Potential for efficient rainfall production with short-term training potential. Fast forward motions may limit overall coverage and magnitude but with very wet soil conditions, scattered incidents of flash flooding are possible.=20 DISCUSSION...Recent VWP analsys has seen an increase and veering of the LLJ across Northwest Texas into OK in response to the approach of convectively enhanced shortwave(s) across northern KS into W OK Panhandle. 850mb flow of 25-30kts has increasing deep layer convergence across north-central OK. Overall, deep layer moisture is available with surface Tds in the upper-70s at the nose of southeasterly surface to boundary layer flow, while a slug of increased moisture in the 850-700 and 700-500 mb layer across SW OK and near the veered convergence in the layer has supported total PWat over 2"+ along north-central to south-central OK.=20 Currently cells are starting to develop along the convergence axis, which is expected to expand along the northeast side of the instability axis (1500-2500 J/kg). Convective development is expected to orient along an effective NW-SE boundary along/ahead of the MCV/shortwave allowing for some short-term potential training elements. Given strength of sfc to 850mb inflow, forward propagation is expected to be very fast toward the south-southeast...so efficient rainfall (HRRR suggests 1-1.25"/15 minutes) within the complex with those short-term training elements may allow for streaks of 2-3" in 1-2hrs as teh complex expands toward 12z. Normally, this would not be much of a concern, however the area has seen well above normal precipiation over the last week. AHPS precip anomalies are genearlly 200-500% of normal in the last 7 days, and while FFG may have rebounded a bit too fast; 1hr values of 1.5-2.5" and less than 3" in 3hrs are well within reach for a few scattered instances of flash flooding overnight across central Oklahoma toward Texarkana. Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7ZG_OOcs0BDwxSxYjmHm8gWRf78c75oUP9gk2iPbTRhAey4sAy-vmOOMSqO7ASNch1Po= HTe3jKw0A_wXKbBvMS3xhwU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 36949690 36399595 35819544 34859449 33819401=20 33099551 33349691 34059774 34989854 35539922=20 36209914 36859796=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .