Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1495
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 04:28:09

ACUS11 KWNS 110428
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110427=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-110630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1495
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...central/south central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

Valid 110427Z - 110630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
continues.

SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms will continue to spread
south-southeastward across areas near/west of Hutchinson and Wichita
through 1-2 AM CDT.  Further organization and intensification
accompanied by increasing potential for damaging wind gusts is not
certain, but at least possible.

DISCUSSION...Consolidation of a couple of clusters of thunderstorms
is ongoing, with the cluster emerging from southwestern
Nebraska/northwestern Kansas now progressing southeast of the
Russell and Great Bend vicinities around 30-35 kt, and the cluster
emerging from south central Nebraska continuing across and south of
the Smith Center area at a bit slower motion.  Based on these
motions, inflow into the updrafts is emanating from the southeast
through south, where level moisture advection may be contributing to
moderate potential instability.=20=20

Forcing for ascent along the cold pools, aided by weak low-level
warm advection, has been contributing to the maintenance of
convection, but warm advection closer to the 700 mb level across
central Kansas may also be contributing to increasing inhibition,
particularly coupled with boundary-layer cooling.  To this point
weak low-level lapse rates may have also been a limiting factor with
respect to the development of severe wind gusts.  Strengthening of
the associated MCV will probably be needed to support a substantive
increase in strong surface gusts.  Given the potential instability
this remains possible, though uncertain as convection spreads toward
the Hutchinson and Wichita areas through 06-07Z.

...Kerr.. 07/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4rX3Xz_GRExqZI8lTp-pbh1JykkJwPpnPYfRA-M8gO93ChucjyhusvhZIlou9o5WscTNdwJen=
IjqDSwrp8Yj0G5gAKI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39449825 39039770 38229724 37229729 36949793 37429866
            37919909 38059908 38389838 39449825=20


=3D =3D =3D
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