Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 03:45:11

AWUS01 KWNH 110345
FFGMPD
VTZ000-NYZ000-111000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0696
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1144 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Northeast New York...Much of Vermont...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110400Z - 111000Z

SUMMARY...Last bands/cores of showers/thunderstorms with
capability of localized 1.5-3.5" totals across already flooded
areas to maintain ongoing flash flooding conditions for the next
6+ hrs before shifting northward.  Greatest Potential remains over
far NE NY and N VT.

DISCUSSION...GOES-WV suite depicts multiple band wrap along closed
low centering near W MA at this time.  A dry slot has wrapped
along the leading edge of the deeper surface occluded front from
Boston across S NH toward SW VT.  Strong sfc to boundary layer
northwesterly to northeasterly flow continues to pool deeper layer
moisture channel with 1.5-1.7" total PWats along and west of the
spine of the Green Mountains into the Upper Hudson River Valley.=20
The combination has resulted in a pocket of remaining 500-750 J/kg
of MUCAPE near the surface low.  This is supporting shallow and
slanted convective cores that wrap along the western edge of the
TROWAL supporting isolated enhanced rainfall up to 1.5"/hr.=20=20

Further north along the deeper moisture axis...a few isolated
cells can be seen on the eastern side of the dry air nose across
Orange county, likely to expand the wedge feature seen in 10.3 EIR
near Addison, VT to Essex/Warren county, NY further north with
time.  Strengthening surface to boundary layer northwesterly flow
is expected to increase convergence to squeeze out the remaining
deeper layer moisture aided by orographic ascent through N VT.=20
Similarly spotty 1.25-1.5"/hr rates may be possible through 09z,
which given broad flooded area and FFG generally at or below .5"
this will maintain localized flash flooding conditions and add to
the swollen rivers of N VT.  As such, will maintain flash flooding
likely tag for this MPD, with greatest potential in N to central
VT and far NE NY through 12z.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5StghrFVk7DEe-yh2KD6KkFNU1X-zmMQQmPvVVlffnn5YfTWcGthQQlEEUMrixqHUHwp=
CyRHURCD_2Tr1qTEsCcZINo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   45097259 45017181 44767186 44427202 43687250=20
            43147279 42957303 43067367 43067484 43617497=20
            44267427 45007387=20

=3D =3D =3D
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