Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 03:15:13

AWUS01 KWNH 110315
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-110900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0695
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1114 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Northwest to North-central Maine...Northern New
Hampshire...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110315Z - 110900Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rainfall with embedded short-term
rates to 1.25" across rugged terrain pose possible localized flash
flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite across New England is dominated by
well wrapped up closed low.  However, a subtle shortwave is noted
in RADAR starting to lift NNE across SE ME at the leading edge of
deeper height-falls and DPVA providing deep layer ascent as well
as strengthening low level moisture transport.  RAP short-term
forecast supported by operational VWP winds out of GYX suggest
this shortwave is increasing warm air advection with 850-700mb
winds increasing from 20 to 25kt and 25 to 35kts in each layer
respectively lifting north across SW Maine.  Given deep layer 1.75
increasing to near 2" at the coast, supports 500-600 kg/m/s IVT
moisture transport through depth.

There is some limited 150-300 J/kg of MUCAPE in/along the western
edge of the WAA/warm conveyor belt, supporting isolated embedded
stronger vertical ascent and rain-rates to 1.25"/hr (perhaps
slightly higher in favored southward facing orography), within a
broader .5"/hr shield.  While the shortwave is lifting north, the
main core of the upper-low will shift eastward and push the warm
conveyor eastward, but there appears to be 4-6hrs of slow eastward
propagation of the core of the belt to allow for increased totals,
this should allow for some spots of 2-3" mainly across NW Maine
into north-central ME by 09z.  Lower FFG across the higher
terrain, especially lowered near N NH int NW ME, has a low-end
possibility to be exceeding with any embedded core, though
prolonged broad heavy rain, should at least result in increased
longer-term flooding concerns.

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!40FOANPIbH8uwqZgD3j3wE8P7T8qE7fthLLPysX1fax77hx8sb9hsJGSy6IFvxX3sNLB=
eeNRBEoW8wzwsN675hdraWw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   47456917 46956855 46226825 45586827 45086864=20
            44826920 44627006 44597056 44797117 45237139=20
            45897057 47066980=20

=3D =3D =3D
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