Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1493
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 01:54:07

ACUS11 KWNS 110154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110153=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-110400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1493
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0853 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...parts of south central Nebraska and northwestern
into central Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

Valid 110153Z - 110400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of ongoing thunderstorm clusters may consolidate
north of the Russell KS vicinity through 10 PM-Midnight CDT, and
perhaps eventually lead to increasing potential for strong wind
gusts.

DISCUSSION...The persistent cluster of storms north of Goodland,
close to the northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly
capping elevated mixed-layer air, has developed an MCV,
strengthening rear inflow and a southeastward surging cold pool.=20
Higher low-level moisture content, however, is still confined to a
narrow corridor along a remnant front west of Dodge City through
Goodland, beneath the warmer air aloft as radiational cooling begins
to increase inhibition for mixed-layer parcels further.=20=20

During the next few hours, though, a gradual eastward advection of
the low-level moisture is forecast into the vicinity of the thermal
gradient along the northeastern periphery of the warmer air aloft.=20
It appears that this may allow for increasingly unstable updraft
inflow into consolidating convection from the northwest and north,
across the Phillipsburg, Smith Center, Hill City, and Russell KS
vicinity, leading to potential for further upscale convective growth
and intensification through 03-05Z.

...Kerr.. 07/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-6luQb_18uMdGO2B_RkB-RFxj9W5j0Zh6-oEfQWi3dFoqPCIQ6yaaXHhG11FAO7ElavPax7Rf=
IVOnGBx73cagSqDsWQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   40249989 40179924 40159837 39189802 37809863 38600049
            39230059 39619992 40249989=20


=3D =3D =3D
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