Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 00:58:05

ACUS01 KWNS 110058
SWODY1
SPC AC 110056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTAL PLAINS...

....SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to produce
hail/wind across parts of the upper Midwest into the Great Plains
tonight.

....01z Update...

Mean upper ridge position is holding across the southwestern US from
western NM into CO. Several weak short-wave troughs continue to top
this feature and turn southeast across the Great Plains/Midwest.
Several thunderstorm clusters have evolved ahead of one weak
disturbance across the central Plains. This activity could expand in
areal coverage over the next few hours as it propagates southeast
across western KS/southern NE. Latest MRMS data suggests large hail
is common with the strongest updrafts and a few of the more robust
updrafts may produce hail approaching 2 inches for the next few
hours. 00z soundings from LBF/OAX exhibited only weak capping, but
strong capping was noted around 2km at DDC this evening. CINH across
the TX Panhandle was considerably weaker. Some upscale growth in
convection may be noted across portions of the southern High Plains
later this evening. Several high-res models suggest this is possible
and given the buoyancy observed over northwest TX this may yet
occur.

Across the upper Midwest...scattered strong convection has evolved
along the front from the U.P. of MI, southwest into west-central WI.
This activity should propagate southeast within a steep lapse rate
environment, though the most vigorous updrafts will likely occur
over the next few hours as convection is currently within the
strongest instability axis.

...Darrow.. 07/11/2023

$$

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