Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1492 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Jul 11 2023 00:10:35 ACUS11 KWNS 110010 SWOMCD SPC MCD 110010=20 KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-110215- Mesoscale Discussion 1492 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0710 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Areas affected...western into central Kansas...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma...parts of east central New Mexico Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468... Valid 110010Z - 110215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 468 continues. SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail and wind will remain possible into the 8-10 PM CDT time frame, with the potential for one or two clusters of storms to gradually evolve. A new watch will probably be issued prior to the scheduled expiration off WW 468. DISCUSSION...Eastward advancing outflow, from convection earlier near the Front Range, did contribute to sufficient forcing to support initiation of thunderstorm activity in stronger instability near the Colorado/Kansas border, between the two earlier initiating clusters. This convection persists as well, but remains modest in the face of strong inhibition associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air. This airmass includes 16-18 C around 700 mb, in a plume east of the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains through much of western Kansas, northwestern Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Beneath 20+ kt northwesterly mid-level flow, which is contributing to strong shear, various model output continues to suggest that forcing along developing cold pools progressing through a corridor of large potential instability may maintain thunderstorm development through the 01-03Z time frame. How strong remains unclear, but stronger low-level warm advection along a remnant zone of stronger differential surface heating across the Panhandle region seems to offer one potential focus for an upscale growing cluster. Other model output suggests that merging/consolidating convection south of North Platte and east of McCook Nebraska might also contribute to a more prominent upscale growing cluster. ...Kerr.. 07/11/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-nje2tZqKQ4K9I9sFO-cjpvACOLqrK3WA6I_ayvjPcjizRYvvNPWRbf9-1jKd1biby2m3iLv-= 1IjZRun6CZyCYhyeXk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 39560042 39619870 37559859 34940012 34420079 34670181 36310207 37110146 38400105 39560042=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .