Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1491
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 23:19:07

ACUS11 KWNS 102319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102318=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-110015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1491
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0618 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota and Northern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102318Z - 110015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential is increasing across portions of southern
Minnesota and Northern Iowa. This area is being monitored for a
potential watch.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows cumulus tower development along
an east-west cold front located across central Minnesota within the
last hour with a few attempts at cell development. Hi-res guidance
indicates that storms will develop along this boundary and move
southward through the evening. In addition, storms and attendant
outflow are moving northeastward out of WW469. MLCAPE around 1000
J/kg has been advecting into this region along with mid 60s dew
points in southerly flow. Deep layer shear is weaker with eastward
extent into central Minnesota and northern Iowa but along the
boundary 20-30 kts of deep layer shear is noted in surface objective
analysis. Initial storm development would be capable of large hail
and damaging winds. It is uncertain if storms will maintain severe
characteristics through time, given the generally more stable air
mass across central Iowa and weakening shear profiles. Trends will
be monitored across this area should a watch be needed.

...Thornton/Guyer.. 07/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5P_ABuLYmSBq3XOwJhV_DF338-NRAf4bMCpUBD-Tzr-QNYhMcUsGY4tQlAnsthDGMu0s4zljU=
4Sew7JocntfzPiG0Q0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON   43789537 43989504 44159446 44259407 44359375 44429340
            44459306 44459279 44429257 44399227 44179166 43839118
            43529115 43229127 43049155 42979217 42889273 42909334
            42909394 43219479 43299495 43429517 43569539 43789537=20


=3D =3D =3D
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