Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1486
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 20:34:07

ACUS11 KWNS 102034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102033=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-102200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1486
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico and the western OK/TX
Panhandles.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 102033Z - 102200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Increasing severe storm coverage is expected this
afternoon/evening across eastern New Mexico and the western OK/TX
Panhandles. A watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...A diffuse dryline continues to mix east across eastern
New Mexico with a bulge west of Lubbock with dewpoints now in the
50s. SPC mesoanalysis continues to indicate a weak capping inversion
along and behind this dryline and visible satellite trends support
this. Therefore, thunderstorms have been mostly confined to the
mountains farther west in New Mexico, where the environment is
uncapped but instability is weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE). Eventually
expect these storms to move farther east into the plains and expect
the CAP to erode further as ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough overspreads the area. This may also allow for some
additional convection to develop near the NM/TX border in the
vicinity of the dryline. Effective shear remains quite weak in the
region (~15 knots per FDX VWP), but a deeply mixed sub-cloud layer
could support enhanced downdrafts from evaporative cooling and
development of a few bowing segments.

...Bentley.. 07/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-vshS62zdChDygmKErnqaTbLs3mh1cwnUc7HxNIS3BTce0t_80HEGqmtNTaL8eP6zUqO7nthK=
yCfGeVTHvsV_NEP4uM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36950136 36550130 35780133 34620150 33430192 33260275
            33320355 33860442 35730434 36930380 37010273 36970248
            36950136=20


=3D =3D =3D
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