Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 19:45:07

AWUS01 KWNH 101945
FFGMPD
NYZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0692
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Central and Northern New York

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101943Z - 110000Z

SUMMARY...Widespread moderate to heavy rain with embedded
convective elements is expected to continue across central and
northern portions of New York through 8 pm local time.  Areas with
more persistent convection over saturated grounds will be most
susceptible to additional flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars are indicating persistent
moderate to heavy rainfall on the northern periphery of an
anomalously strong mid-upper low centered near Binghamton, New
York, with highly diffluent 500-200mb flow fostering deep layer
ascent and efficient rainfall production with a trowal type
feature evident on visible satellite.  PWs are generally in the
1.4 to 1.7 range based on recent SPC mesoanalysis, but one of the
mitigating factors here is the modest levels of instabilty, with
mixed layer CAPE generally in the 200-500 J/kg range.  The
additional overall rainfall totals are not expected to be overly
impressive, with most of the CAM guidance suggesting generally 1-2
inches through 8 pm with locally higher totals possible.  However,
this will be falling on highly saturated soils from earlier
rainfall, and flash flood guidance values are reduced to under 1.5
inches per hour for some areas, and some instances of flooding
will be possible.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!79n52NZJ8Siv2A3RdLBTmvtY-h-RPfhv4086SXSNsVDowaFOUDMiwQLWHLO27Qg2uBXw=
YZ45RtRGMzLP_WUTpnNc1AY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   44467582 44417520 44177474 44017398 43087418=20
            42787420 42707432 42667449 42747493 42807523=20
            42757573 42667630 43027661 43347658 43677637=20
            44107630=20

=3D =3D =3D
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