Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1484
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 19:09:34

ACUS11 KWNS 101909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101909=20
IAZ000-NEZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-102115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1484
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0209 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Portions of NE...southeastern SD...and northwestern
IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 101909Z - 102115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe-storm
potential this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate a
northeast-southwest-oriented pre-frontal trough/wind shift extending
from southeastern SD into northern NE. Along the wind shift in SD,
strong surface heating amid upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints is
supporting a locally uncapped air mass and isolated thunderstorm
development. While weak large-scale ascent over the surface boundary
casts uncertainty on storm coverage, around 40-50 kt of effective
shear (characterized by a long/straight hodograph) will
conditionally support organized storms including supercells this
afternoon into the evening. The weak large-scale ascent and
deep-layer shear vectors oriented perpendicular to the boundary
should favor discrete/semi-discrete supercells initially, with a
risk of large hail (some up to 2 inches in diameter) and locally
damaging gusts. With time, localized clustering will be possible
owing to storm splits/mergers, and the severe-wind risk could
increase as a result. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed in the next hour or two.

...Weinman/Mosier.. 07/10/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4fGqIcq21pESmaLzvlJgApiA64kqXw0H4p83yNUmgjq49y-rtYCDDue-V8xP0PuANQkHh5gbR=
oYzwR06KfZxvcVN2AU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   40020053 40100100 40540143 41030146 41350135 41710099
            41940070 42200030 42479990 42869926 43079872 43359798
            43469743 43549677 43479607 43449554 43289507 42949483
            42509490 42109523 41689577 41129679 40679789 40059974
            40020053=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.