Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 17:32:36

ACUS02 KWNS 101732
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA...FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
The greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday will be centered over
Nebraska, with very large hail and damaging winds possible. Other
severe storms will be possible over northern and eastern Texas, from
eastern Montana into the western Dakotas, and from northern Illinois
to Lake Erie.

....Synopsis...
Moderate northwest flow aloft will persist from the northern Rockies
across the northern Plains, between an upper high over AZ/NM and an
upper low over Hudson Bay. Weak upper ridging will occur over the
northern Plains during day, but this will flatten as a weak wave
moves east/southeastward out of MT.

At the surface, high pressure will begin the day over the northern
Plains and upper MS Valley, with a stalled front roughly along I-80
in NE and IA. Substantial moisture will exist south of the boundary,
with mid 60s dewpoints as far into northwest NE by late afternoon.
Southerly winds above the surface will aid elevated moisture
transport, with substantial elevated instability as far north as
central SD.

....Northern/Central Plains...
Scattered storms are likely by late afternoon from eastern MT into
the western Dakotas as the influence of the midlevel wave is felt,
with heating and convergence near a surface trough. A few cells may
produce hail or gusty winds there.

To the south, storms are likely to form over west-central/northern
NE in proximity to the strong instability. Very large damaging hail
will be likely. Model solutions vary as to how widespread storms
will be, and whether an MCS may form. If that occurs, then the
severe risk would spread eastward across NE, western IA, and parts
of northern KS and MO. Elongated hodographs with veering winds with
height will favor southeastward-moving supercells.

....Northern and eastern TX to the central Gulf Coast...
Models indicate an MCS could be ongoing over parts of OK Tuesday
morning, and any outflow with this system would continue
south/southeast. Strong instability will develop over TX and LA due
to the very moist air mass and steepening low-level lapse rates,
with MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg. Brief hail or locally damaging gusts may
occur with redevelopment related to this regime, and portions of
this region could reach Slight Risk levels in later outlooks as
predictability increases.

...Jewell.. 07/10/2023

$$

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