Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 14:30:01

AWUS01 KWNH 101429
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-102030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0689
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1029 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101430Z - 102030Z

SUMMARY...The flash flood threat continues in southern New England
with up to 2-2.5"/hr rainfall rates within embedded thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...14Z surface analysis showed a surface low in the Long
Island sound with a warm front draped just south of the New
England coast. The 12Z OKX sounding still showed a highly
saturated profile with 900 J/kg of MLCAPE, warm cloud layers over
13,000ft deep, and a sheared profile supporting organized
thunderstorms. RAP forecast show 1.8-2.0" PWATs will continue to
be directed at southern New England the remainder of the morning
and into the early afternoon hours. The RAP also shows 925-850mb
theta-e advection into eastern CT, RI, and MA lingering into the
early afternoon hours. PWATs should begin to decrease over western
Long Island and western CT as the cold front moves east, but as
the upper low over central NY forms, the surface low may slow its
progression east and allow a window for redevelopment and training
thunderstorms this afternoon.

Given the slower progression of the surface low, as surface based
heating ensues over Long Island and central CT, MLCAPE will range
between 500-1,000 J/kg over central CT. With little in the way of
CIN present, storms could reform along a surface trough north of
the surface low this afternoon. The available instability and
moisture aloft will support additional heavy showers and storms
that could produce as high as 3"/hr rainfall rates. Meanwhile,
soils have continued to moisten from previous rainfall over the
past 24 hours. Flash flooding will remain a possibility today,
particularly in the areas with highly sensitive soils and in more
urbanized communities.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!6SkiUpQL5pLiYwb9IWPfEgPQqf1YEd5mhp3RkmtWcyo_a0xtWdEa-4cGzwnsC5yoIwWz=
TavID0_UvQMAEwFyLe5IEOQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42227071 41627038 41207068 41207210 41207267=20
            41547273 41947253 42047213 42157169 42187110=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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