Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 08:29:33

ACUS48 KWNS 100829
SWOD48
SPC AC 100827

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Global models continue to depict the persistence of an unusually
strong upper vortex over the Manitoba/Ontario vicinity, which is
expected to drift slowly in a counter-clockwise manner through the
period.  The continued presence of this feature will maintain
enhanced, northwesterly cyclonic flow across the central and into
the eastern U.S. through the period, as a mid-level height gradient
is maintained between the drifting low, and southwestern U.S.
ridging.

As smaller-scale features rotate through the cyclonic northwesterly
flow, cold-frontal advances southward/southeastward across the
central and eastern U.S. will focus persistent and -- at times --
widespread convection across the eastern half of the country.  Given
the belt of fast mid-level flow aloft, potential for severe weather
will exists each day, through the period.

However, highlighting areas of concentrated severe risk remains
difficult.  The combination of relatively subtle, progressive
mid-level disturbances modulating the progression of the weak
surface boundaries, as well as daily/potentially widespread episodes
of convection whose outflows will influence favored areas of
subsequent convective development, preclude any confident
delineation of specific risk areas through the period.

...Goss.. 07/10/2023

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