Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 06:03:33 ACUS02 KWNS 100603 SWODY2 SPC AC 100601 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0101 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEBRASKA/IOWA VICINITY... ....SUMMARY... Greatest risk for severe storms on Tuesday appears likely to reside over the Mid-Missouri Valley vicinity. ....Northern High Plains into the Mid-Missouri Valley, and east to Lower Michigan... A cold front extending from Lower Michigan/Wisconsin to Nebraska, and then northwestward into the northern High Plains, is forecast to make gradual southeastward progress across the Upper Great Lakes area, reaching the Lower Lakes and northern portions of the Midwest states late. However, the front is progged to become quasi-stationary across Iowa and Nebraska through the period. Diurnal heating/destabilization will occur through the afternoon, along the boundary, which will permit isolated storm development to occur along the length of the front from Lower Michigan to eastern Montana. With moderate west-northwesterly mid-level flow across this region, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve, with hail and locally damaging wind gusts possible. Greatest storm coverage/severe potential may evolve parts of north-central Nebraska, though uncertainty exists as to whether the bulk of this development will remain farther north, north of the front, and later -- associated with low-level jet development. In any case, the development of the low-level jet will likely support a increase in convection, yielding upscale growth of storms which would likely move southeastward with time. At least some severe risk would likely accompany these storms into the overnight hours -- primarily hail, if storms are largely north of the front across southern South Dakota and into southern Minnesota/northern Iowa, but with wind potential as well if the more southern scenario evolves across central and eastern Nebraska and into western Iowa. ....Arklatex vicinity to Florida... Scattered to isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period, along a cold front forecast to extend from southern Georgia west-northwestward across the central Gulf Coast states to Oklahoma. During the day, as heating/destabilization occurs in the vicinity of the front, storms will likely increase in coverage locally. Given a belt of modestly enhanced, cyclonic westerly flow along the boundary, a few stronger storms -- possibly accompanied by risk for locally damaging winds -- are expected. Risk should continue through the afternoon, before a weakening trend begins by early evening. Some CAMs suggest that convection, and limited severe risk, may linger into the evening from east Texas into Louisiana through much of the evening. ...Goss.. 07/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .