Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 04:11:53

AWUS01 KWNH 100411
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0684
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1211 AM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023

Areas affected...Eastern AL...Western GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100410Z - 100930Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving, merging convection with some short term
training or repeating pose low-end risk of possible flash flooding
overnight.

DISCUSSION...RADAR moasic depcits a line of shallow thunderstorms
across Northern AL into NW GA along and ahead of developing
shortwave across NW AL.  GOES-E WV denotes the area of
thunderstorms is developing along the diffluent edge of deeper
cyclonic flow aloft where divergence has been sufficient for
maintaining weak updrafts.  Weak low level confluence aligns with
a narrow axis of remaining instability while at the northeast nose
of deeper layer moisture, responding to the right entrance to the
3H jet streak over E TN.   RAP analysis suggests 750-1000 J/kg of
MUCAPE into NW GA with moisture flux convergence of 1.8-2" total
PWats.  As such, efficient tropical/warm cloud process showers
have produced spots of 2-2.5" in the last hour.
Given deeper layer motions and less exhausted pool of unstable air
within GA, cells and short-term training may allow for spots of
2-3" over the next few hours.  Higher FFG across GA will require
thunderstorms to increase in intensity with that pool of increased
instability remaining, so similar probability of heavy rainfall
resulting in low-end possible flash flooding.

Stronger forcing near the shortwave/MCV will enhance some
potential for thunderstorms, though instability minimum exists
across central AL.  HRRR solutions hint at sufficient instability
for cells along and downstream of the shortwave increasing
short-term heavy rainfall duration to support spotty 2-3" totals
as well. This wave could cross areas affected by 2-3" and spotty
flash flooding a few hours ago/yesterday. So with saturated soils
and swollen streams, may result in a spot of additional flash
flooding in the next few hours as well.=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_LzL7kP_MWfhqZdky2Qc0sMGoFznIF5R5TrrNbpT9gQvBMqytXzWTpv_DkgkZGaia9_q=
vSt3y-XL5lq1SjLOW7PGOt0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...HUN...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34508556 34318423 33668352 32878367 32638401=20
            32548481 32628597 32828722 33308763 33858751=20
            34248692=20

=3D =3D =3D
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