Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 01:18:51

AWUS01 KWNH 100118
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-100600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0681
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 PM EDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Central LA...Central MS...Western AL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100116Z - 100600Z

SUMMARY...Back-building showers and thunderstorms are expected to
persist through the late evening hours across portions of central
Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama.  Some convective
training may develop and this could result in some rainfall rates
of 1-2 inches in 30 minutes, and this may result in a few
instances of flooding through 1 am local time

DISCUSSION...Regional Doppler radars along with recent infrared
satellite scans are depicting a steady increase in showers and
storms over the past few hours.  There is a remnant MCV/vortmax
over eastern Arkansas, along with some left exit jet dynamics,
that is supporting ascent.  Additionally, there is a weak incoming
cold front from the northwest that will also aid in ascent.  The
environment is quite moist ahead of the front with PWs of 2.1 to
2.4 inches across most of the outlook area, and mixed layer CAPE
is on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg per recent SPC mesoanalysis.=20

The latest CAM guidance suite is depicting the potential for
patchy 2 to 4 inch QPF maxima through 1 am local time.  The
highest rainfall rates are likely to be associated with
backbuilding cells where 2-3 inches may fall within an hour, with
the greatest prospects for this generally between Jackson and
Tupelo, MS, where HREF neighborhood probabilities of 3-hourly
flash flood guidance exceedance are up to 35%.  Parts of this
region have experienced 200-300% of normal rainfall over the past
week, and thus more vulnerable to potential flooding issues.=20
Flash flooding is considered possible owing to both the antecedent
conditions and the ongoing radar trends.

Hamrick

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4_M5PBtKo_E_mUB1ez4f0hDOuF7P-UmfE4aEIJ6qCKn3MXy5a7guosh0BhCbHFXnLDpE=
icSLP0UUfZ4uU8oKOzmBFjY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34208895 34178762 33738713 33058735 32328798=20
            31668920 31169024 30899116 30649226 30509345=20
            30899386 31279344 31729211 32689156 33109124=20
            33329064 33808991 34068941=20

=3D =3D =3D
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