Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jul 10 2023 00:46:58 ACUS01 KWNS 100046 SWODY1 SPC AC 100045 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may still impact northern and north central Minnesota this evening and pose at least some risk for severe wind. Strong thunderstorm development posing a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts also may persist into mid to late evening across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ....01Z Update... ....Northern Minnesota/western Lake Superior vicinity... Ahead of a significant cold front now beginning to advance across the international border vicinity, there remains some signal within model output that a clustering of thunderstorm development is still possible near/east of the Bemidji, MN vicinity this evening. This is supported by current convective trends west/northwest of Bemidji, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with low-level warm advection, near the nose of a pre-frontal corridor of strong boundary-layer heating and mixing. This environment appears characterized by sufficient moisture to support CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg, and potential for sustained convection in the presence of strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear to 40-50 kts. If this occurs, downward mixing of stronger flow may contribute to a risk for a few severe surface wind gusts, before convection wanes with boundary-layer cooling later this evening, as it progresses eastward. ....Lower Mississippi Valley... To the south/southwest of a remnant MCV slowly progressing eastward across the Mid South, some clustering of vigorous thunderstorm development may still be underway in a corridor across central Mississippi into central Louisiana. In the presence of lingering sizable mixed-layer CAPE, and moderately strong deep-layer shear beneath 40 kt westerly 500 mb flow, the environment may still be conducive to an upscale growing cluster that could pose a risk for a few strong wind gusts before diminishing later tonight. ...Kerr.. 07/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .