Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1476
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Jul 09 2023 17:38:58

ACUS11 KWNS 091738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091738=20
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-091915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1476
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Sun Jul 09 2023

Areas affected...Eastern New York...Vermont...and western
Massachusetts

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 091738Z - 091915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...There will be an isolated damaging wind threat across
portions of the Northeast this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Surface-based destabilization has occurred beneath
filtered clouds across eastern New York, Vermont, and western
Massachusetts. Some thunderstorms have started to form over the
mountains. Expect additional development later this afternoon as the
shortwave trough, currently across western Pennsylvania, moves
northeast. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg, coupled with 20-25 knots
of effective shear, could be sufficient for a few multicell clusters
capable of isolated wind damage within an environment otherwise
supporting mostly sub-severe convection.

...Bentley/Mosier.. 07/09/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8VOYV0V2rlyl8yDpxkVGrer2GXIBsghhI6XcQZdqyUad60I2CpTwRjV28v1LjtRAkJDhdNRPt=
ztNqqwz80TEClryowM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...

LAT...LON   42037350 43407454 44507495 45097463 45237238 44687189
            42927200 42237248 41957291 42037350=20


=3D =3D =3D
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